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A-Level Predicted Grades: How Schools Set Them and How UCAS Uses Them

A predicted grade is your school or college’s evidence-based estimate, not a guaranteed result or university offer. Learn what may shape it, when it goes to UCAS and what to do if the evidence seems incomplete.

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Editorial

  • Portrait of Robin GibbonsLead authorFounder & CEO·Latimer Tuition
  • Reviewed byHeather LatimerTutor Matching & Customer Service·Latimer Tuition
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Current answer

What are A-level predicted grades?

An A-level predicted grade is a school or college’s evidence-based professional estimate of the grade a student is likely to achieve for a qualification that is still pending. It is submitted with the UCAS application, but it is not a guaranteed result, an offer or a promise of admission.

“the grade of qualification an applicant’s school or college believes they’re likely to achieve in positive circumstances” — UCAS

“Positive circumstances” does not mean the highest grade anyone could imagine. UCAS also says the prediction should be demonstrably achievable, objective, informed by data and professional judgement. There is no national A-level predicted-grade calculator: each centre decides how to combine its evidence within its own policy.

Current answer

How do universities use predicted grades?

Universities use predicted grades in different ways. Before final results are available, a prediction may help a university judge whether an applicant appears capable of meeting the course’s academic requirements. Depending on the course, it may be considered alongside achieved qualifications, required subjects, the academic reference, contextual information, admissions tests, interviews, portfolios, written work or other selection evidence.

The weighting is not uniform. Another strength in the application may not offset a stated minimum or a required subject grade. Oxford, for example, says predictions help tutors assess academic potential, while its course-specific selection may also involve tests, written work and interviews.

“meeting the entrance criteria through achieved or predicted grades does not guarantee an offer will be made” — UCL

That quotation is UCL’s policy wording, but the broader point is useful: a prediction supports an application; it is not an automatic offer. Final confirmation normally depends on achieved results and the conditions of any offer.

Target, working, predicted and achieved grades compared

Schools may show several grade labels at the same time. They can differ without being contradictory. For example, a student might have a target of A, a current working grade of B, a UCAS prediction of A and an achieved grade of B. The target describes a goal, the working grade describes recent evidence, the prediction estimates likely final performance, and the achieved grade records the final award.

A plain-English comparison of target, working or current, predicted and achieved A-level grades.

Grade labelWhat it usually meansMain useImportant limit

Target grade

A benchmark or goal used to support progress, sometimes informed by prior attainment or performance data.

School or college planning, reporting and progress conversations.

There is no single UK-wide method. A target is not automatically the grade submitted through UCAS.

Working or current grade

What the student’s recent work, tests or assessments currently demonstrate.

A snapshot of present performance and the next areas to improve.

It may be lower or higher than the target and may differ from the final prediction.

Predicted grade

The evidence-based grade the centre believes the student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances.

A prediction for a pending qualification supplied with the UCAS application.

It is an estimate, not a guaranteed final result or university offer.

Achieved grade

The final grade formally awarded after the relevant examinations and assessments have been marked and graded.

Confirmation against any offer conditions and the student’s permanent qualification record.

Assessment and qualification arrangements differ across the UK; Ofqual guidance cited here is specific to England.

How do schools set A-level predicted grades?

There is no national formula and no fixed weighting for mocks, GCSE results, coursework or classroom performance. UCAS guidance says predictions should be achievable, objective, informed by data, based on professional judgement, independent of a student’s preferred university entry requirements and finalised before submission.

A school or college may consider the evidence below. The evidence window, weighting and review process are set locally.

  • Current work and internal assessments

    Recent essays, problem sets, practical work, topic tests or other secure assessments may show the standard the student is currently reaching.

  • Mock examinations

    Mocks may provide useful timed evidence, but they do not necessarily decide the prediction on their own.

  • Previous performance

    Earlier attainment, including GCSE results or Year 12 performance, may provide context. It is not automatically a ceiling on later A-level progress.

  • Performance over time

    Teachers may look for consistency, improvement and how securely the student can apply knowledge across more than one task.

  • Relevant individual circumstances

    Illness, disability, bereavement, disrupted teaching or another documented circumstance may help the centre understand temporary underperformance and decide what belongs in the reference.

  • Professional judgement

    Data informs the decision, but UCAS does not prescribe a purely mathematical answer. Subject knowledge and a centre’s quality-assurance process remain important.

Who enters predicted grades in a UCAS application?

The student lists qualifications still being studied, or for which results are awaited, as pending. For an application linked to a registered school or college, authorised staff add the predictions, approve the reference and send the completed application. For an applicant who is not linked to a centre, an appropriate independent referee supplies the reference and any predictions they can support. UCAS receives the information; it does not calculate the grades.

Applicants do not see the reference or predictions automatically in the UCAS applicant interface. UCAS encourages early discussion, so students should ask their school or college directly.

The typical responsibilities of the student, teachers, authorised centre staff, UCAS and universities.

ParticipantTypical roleWhat they do not control

Student

Enters qualifications accurately, marks unfinished or awaited qualifications as pending, researches courses and discusses likely predictions with the centre.

In a centre-linked application, the student does not enter or approve their own predicted grades.

Subject teacher or department

Contributes subject evidence and academic judgement under the centre’s policy.

A teacher does not decide how a university will weigh the prediction or whether it will make an offer.

Authorised centre staff or independent referee

Centre staff record predictions, approve the reference and submit a linked application; an independent referee supplies the reference and any predictions they can support.

Neither can guarantee an offer, admission or the student’s final achieved grades.

UCAS

Receives the submitted application information and makes it available to the chosen universities or colleges.

UCAS does not calculate a prediction and cannot amend it after the application has been submitted.

University or college

Applies its own admissions policy and decides how much weight to give predictions alongside other evidence.

It does not set the school’s original academic judgement, although it decides how submitted or corrected information is considered.

When predictions are sent — and when they can change

There is no separate national predicted-grades day. Predictions are sent with the complete UCAS application when the school, college or referee submits it. A centre’s internal deadline may be earlier than the external UCAS deadline because staff need time to check qualifications, add the reference and resolve queries.

1. Evidence is gathered

The centre considers the evidence available under its policy and discusses or reviews the likely grades as its process allows.

2. The application is checked

The student records pending qualifications, while authorised staff add the predictions and complete or approve the reference.

3. The complete application is submitted

The predictions are finalised at submission. Use the current UCAS key dates and the centre’s earlier internal deadline when planning.

4. UCAS cannot edit the prediction afterwards

Before submission, authorised staff may edit an entry under the centre’s policy. After submission, UCAS cannot amend the reference or predicted grades.

5. A genuine error must be raised directly

If the centre discovers that it entered the wrong grade after submission, the applicant or centre should contact the chosen universities as soon as possible. A university may not be able or willing to reconsider, especially after a decision.

6. Achieved results are used at confirmation

Universities normally compare the final achieved results with the conditions of any offer and apply their own confirmation policy.

Questions to ask before your application is sent

Ask early enough for a useful conversation. This is a practical checklist, not a national procedure, and a school or college may have its own decision-maker, evidence rules and deadline.

  • The grade recorded

    What predicted grade is currently recorded for each pending qualification?

  • The meaning of each label

    How is the prediction different from the target grade or current working grade shown in reports?

  • The evidence used

    Which assessments, pieces of work and other evidence informed the prediction?

  • The period considered

    Was the judgement based on one assessment, recent work or performance over a longer period?

  • Further relevant evidence

    Is another assessment or piece of work due before the grade is finalised?

  • Relevant circumstances

    Has any documented illness, disability, bereavement, disrupted teaching or other material circumstance been considered appropriately?

  • The review process

    Does the centre have a written process for queries or reviews, who makes the final decision and what evidence can be submitted?

  • The internal deadline

    By what date must a question be raised before the centre finalises and submits the application?

A conversation opener you can adapt

How to ask for an evidence review

When this applies

You want to understand or query the evidence behind a prediction before the UCAS application is submitted.

Suggested wording

Could we review the evidence behind my UCAS prediction? I would like to understand which assessments and work were considered, whether any relevant circumstances are missing, and whether there is a review process before my application is submitted.

Why this helps

Use this before the application is submitted. Keep the request focused on the evidence, any missing information and the centre’s own process rather than asking for a grade solely because a preferred course requires it.

It asks for a clear, evidence-based explanation and the correct local process without asking the centre to make its prediction match a university’s entry requirement. A review does not guarantee that the grade will change.

Disagreement, missing evidence or a data-entry error?

These are different problems and need different responses. There is no universal national right of appeal against a predicted grade, so the school or college’s published process matters before submission.

How to distinguish a disagreement about judgement, missing material information and a data-entry error.

SituationWhat it meansUseful next stepImportant limit

Disagreement with academic judgement

The student believes the available evidence supports a higher prediction.

Ask for the evidence used and follow the centre’s review process before submission.

Needing a higher grade for a chosen course is not evidence that the higher grade is likely.

Missing material evidence or circumstances

Relevant assessed work or a documented circumstance may not have been considered.

Raise the missing information as soon as possible and provide what the centre’s process permits.

Adding information does not automatically require the centre to change its academic judgement.

Data-entry error

The grade entered is not the grade the authorised staff intended to submit.

Before submission, authorised staff can correct the entry. After submission, tell the centre and chosen universities immediately.

UCAS cannot change a submitted prediction, and a university may not be able to reconsider corrected information.

What if your predicted grades are below the entry requirements?

There is no UK-wide rule that every university will consider an applicant who is one grade below. The answer depends on the university, course, required subjects, competition and any contextual-admissions policy. Use the sequence below to make a reasoned choice rather than assuming either automatic rejection or automatic flexibility.

  • Check the current course page

    Read the published grades together with required subjects, GCSE requirements, admissions tests, portfolios, interviews and any alternative offer arrangements.

  • Identify what the grades represent

    Establish whether the page gives a typical offer, an offer range or a stated minimum prediction required for consideration. The wording matters.

  • Check contextual admissions

    Eligibility depends on the university’s published criteria, not simply on having a lower prediction. UCAS says contextual offers may be one or two grades below standard requirements, but universities can use context in other ways and do not promise a reduced offer to every eligible applicant.

  • Use historical entry grades carefully

    UCAS historical entry-grade data can show the grades held by previous accepted applicants. It does not guarantee an offer, show every selection factor or identify every contextual offer.

  • Ask a focused admissions question

    Where the published policy is unclear, ask whether your current prediction can be considered under the standard or contextual policy and whether the stated grades are a minimum for consideration.

  • Build a balanced set of choices

    Choose courses using their current published policies rather than one general rule. A balanced set can include more ambitious choices and options where the academic fit is clearer.

An admissions question you can adapt

How to ask about a prediction below the entry requirements

When this applies

Your current prediction is below the published course requirement and the university’s current policy is unclear.

Suggested wording

The published requirement for this course is AAB and my current prediction is ABB. Does your admissions policy permit consideration at that level, including through contextual admissions, or is AAB the minimum prediction required for consideration?

Why this helps

Use this when the current course page does not clearly say whether an applicant with a lower prediction can be considered. Replace the example grades and check the provider’s published contextual-admissions criteria before sending it.

It asks about the provider’s actual policy and separates standard from contextual consideration without asking for a guarantee of an offer.

Independent, private and resit applicants

Applicants outside a current school or college may need to organise a suitable referee and evidence earlier. Requirements can differ between referees, exam centres, universities and courses.

The referee must be suitable

UCAS guidance for independent applicants says the referee should know the applicant in an academic or professional capacity and must not be a family member or friend.

Predictions are requested where possible

The referee is asked for predictions for pending qualifications. If a prediction cannot be provided, UCAS allows the field to be left blank with the reason explained in the reference, but missing predictions may complicate or delay an application.

A university may set a stricter requirement

Oxford currently says applicants awaiting results must provide predictions and may need to wait until results are achieved if they cannot obtain them. That is an Oxford-specific position, not a UCAS-wide ban.

Resits remain part of the full record

A resit still to be completed is listed as pending, while the original achieved result remains declared. A predicted resit grade does not replace the earlier grade.

Arrange evidence early

A former school or exam centre may decide it does not have enough recent evidence to make a prediction, so confirm the referee, evidence and university requirements before application deadlines become tight.

Sources and further reading

The main definitions and admissions processes in this guide are based on the official guidance and Latimer pages below, accessed on 4 August 2026. UCAS procedures, application dates and university policies can change between application cycles.

  • UCAS: Predicted grades – what you need to know for entry this year

    Definition, evidence principles, centre variation and university use.

    Open source 1

  • UCAS: Managing references and predicted grades in the adviser portal

    Pending qualifications, prediction entry, applicant visibility and changes before or after submission.

    Open source 2

  • UCAS: Key dates timeline

    Current application-cycle dates and submission timing.

    Open source 3

  • UCAS: Writing undergraduate references for independent applicants

    Independent-referee suitability and predicted-grade requests.

    Open source 4

  • UCAS: Contextual admissions

    Provider variation, eligibility factors and possible contextual outcomes.

    Open source 5

  • UCAS: Understanding historical entry grades data

    How to use previous accepted-applicant grades without treating them as a guarantee.

    Open source 6

  • UCAS: Predicted Grades — Context

    High-level context on prediction differences by qualification and UK nation.

    Open source 7

  • University of Oxford: UCAS application

    A clearly scoped university example covering pending qualifications, predictions, resits and conditional offers.

    Open source 8

  • UCL: How we assess your application

    A clearly scoped university example of academic requirements and wider selection evidence.

    Open source 9

  • GOV.UK / Ofqual: Chief Regulator affirms rigorous grading standards

    England-specific information about achieved grades, marking and grading.

    Open source 10

  • Latimer Tuition: Match me with a tutor

    Current matching-service information.

    Open source 11

  • Latimer Tuition: Find a tutor

    Current tutor-directory and filtering information.

    Open source 12

Related guidance

More guidance from this section

More guidance from this part of the Ed Centre that may help with the same decision, stage or next step.

Support and clarity

Frequently asked questions

Straight answers to the questions people ask most often.

Are target grades and predicted grades the same?

Not necessarily. A target is usually a locally defined goal or progress benchmark. A predicted grade is the centre’s evidence-based estimate for a pending qualification and is the grade supplied through UCAS. Schools use different labels and methods, so ask what each grade means locally rather than assuming they are interchangeable.

Are predicted grades based on mocks or GCSE results?

They may contribute, but there is no national weighting and neither source has to decide the prediction on its own. A centre may also consider current work, internal assessments, performance over time, relevant circumstances and professional judgement under its own policy.

Do universities look at predicted grades?

Yes. Many universities use them as one part of admissions before final results are available, but their importance varies by university and course. Predictions may be considered with achieved qualifications, required subjects, the reference, contextual information and course-specific selection such as tests, interviews or portfolios. Meeting the grades does not guarantee an offer.

Can students see their predicted grades on UCAS?

They do not appear automatically in the applicant interface. UCAS encourages centres to discuss likely predictions early enough to support course research, so the student should ask their school or college directly.

When are predicted grades sent to UCAS?

They are sent as part of the complete application when the school, college or referee submits it. There is no separate national predicted-grades day. A centre may set an internal deadline earlier than the external UCAS deadline so staff can check the application and complete the reference.

Can predicted grades change or be appealed?

They may be reviewed before submission if the centre’s policy and evidence support a change, but there is no universal national right of appeal. After submission, UCAS cannot amend the reference or predictions. A genuine data-entry error must be raised with the chosen universities, and they may not be able to reconsider it.

What if my predicted grades are below the entry requirements?

There is no universal one-grade tolerance. Check the current course requirements, required subjects, any stated minimum for consideration and the university’s contextual-admissions policy. Historical entry data can add context but cannot guarantee an offer. Ask the admissions team a specific question when the published position is unclear.

How do independent, private or resit applicants get predicted grades?

An independent applicant needs a suitable referee who knows them academically or professionally and is not a family member or friend. The referee is asked for predictions where possible. A resit still to be completed is listed as pending, while the original achieved grade remains declared. Referee, exam-centre and university requirements vary, so arrange the evidence and referee early.

Sources and references

Sources and references

Official guidance

Internal pages